NAOS CEO Insights

August 30, 2024

CEO INSIGHTS – Week Ending 30 August 2024

“People continue to spend about the same amount of money, they’re just demanding value for money”

Steve Donohue, CEO, Endeavour Group Ltd

ASX Reporting Season Special

Retail

“I'm not sure the tax cuts seem to have done a lot. I do think we've got a cautious consumer because I haven't seen any interest rate cuts yet. And there remains talk about, although unjustified, that interest rates might go up, which has just been the media playing to that, and I don't think that's correct anyway” Anthony Scali, CEO, Nick Scali Ltd

"With the macroeconomic environment stabilising, improved consumer sentiment is anticipated to benefit spend patterns in H2 HY25 which should result in stronger revenue and profitability in that half." Market Statement, City Chic Ltd

"Cost of doing business pressures are expected to persist in the 2025 financial year, driven by elevated inflation, labour market constraints, wage cost increases, and higher energy and supply chain costs." Market Statement, Wesfarmers Ltd

Consumer Electronics

“It is pleasing to see sales momentum in Australia continue into July.” Terry Smart, CEO, JB Hi-Fi Ltd

“People are buying the best TVs they can afford” Ruslan Kogan, CEO, Kogan.com Ltd

Luxury Goods

"Since the start of FY25, the global luxury sector has continued to experience softer trading conditions. Increased promotional activity remains prevalent… Clearance sales activity by participants in the online segment exiting parts of the market continued in July." Market Statement, Cettire Ltd

Labour Markets

“Economists are forecasting weaker macroeconomic conditions in most of our markets. We have assumed paid ad volumes in Australia and New Zealand will continue to decline throughout this financial year.” Ian Narev, CEO, Seek Ltd

Mining Services

"The Company expects market activity in the near term will remain relatively flat, as customers in some jurisdictions complete cost out programs and reset for the industry upturn." Market Statement, Imdex Ltd

Industrial Services

"Increased demand for metal intensive infrastructure spending and the production of post consumption scrap continues to be positive for metal recycling (both ferrous and nonferrous)." Market Statement, Sims Metals Ltd

"While we have seen more project cancellations and scope decreases than at the same time in FY2023, long-term demand for energy, chemicals and resources contributions into the global economy is positive" Chris Ashton, CEO, Worley Ltd

Health & Wellness

"Achieving the upper-end of our previously issued guidance in what many would consider a challenging environment is a clear demonstration of the robustness of both our industry and our business strategy. It also highlights the enduring importance of health and wellness to our members.” Harry Konstantinou, CEO, Viva Leisure Ltd

Healthcare

"Volume growth in pathology has continued during July and August, improving by over 4% on pcp. Imaging has continued to grow revenue by approximately 12% year on year" Market Statement, Healius Ltd

“We are currently over-reliant on treatment in more expensive acute hospitals, rather than in other more fit for purpose settings. “The health transition is advanced in other parts of the world, with Australia trailing many countries in the uptake of more contemporary models of care." David Koczkar, CEO, Medibank Private Ltd

TV & Media

“The continued weak economic environment contributed to an 8.2% decline in the total TV advertising market on FY23.” Jeff Howard, CEO, Seven West Media Ltd

The Company expects mid to high single digit revenue growth for the industry in CY24, as Out of Home continues its structural growth, taking revenue share from other media sectors.” Market Statement, oOh!media Ltd

Banking & Lending

“The Australian economy remains resilient with low unemployment, continued private and public investment, and exports supporting national income. Higher interest rates are slowing the economy and gradually moderating inflation.” Matt Comyn, CEO, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd

“The reduction in profit reflects the impact of trading through a period of economic uncertainty and elevated competitive activity." James Boyle, CEO, Liberty Financial Group Ltd

Equities, Share Registry & Trusts

"Corporate Action revenues were up over 23%. The result was driven by an increase in the average size of transactions rather than growth in volumes. That recovery is yet to come" Stuart Irving, CEO, Computershare Ltd

“It's still been a challenging environment for the trading business, and we're still seeing lower volumes and not so many IPOs." Marcus Price, CEO, IRESS Ltd

Financial Services

“While the headline [FY24] results represent strong increases on the prior year it’s important to point out that the past three years have been very challenging for all insurance companies with inflation, natural hazards and a fundamental resent in global reinsurance markets.” Steve Johnston, CEO, Suncorp Group

“Consumers and small businesses struggled in the face of high inflation, high interest rates, and cost of living pressures. For many small businesses, this has been too much, and we are still seeing elevated levels of business closure.” Jonathan Davey, CEO, Tyro Payments Ltd

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Building & Construction

“It feels like everyone’s just been treading water for six months or nine months, just waiting for some indication that, hey, things are fine. It seems like people are waiting for an interest rate cut.” Heath Sharp, CEO, Reliance Worldwide

“While market conditions are likely to remain challenging in FY25, we are setting ourselves up for recovery.” Campbell Hanan, CEO, Mirvac Group Ltd

Housing

“So we're always cautious and we're conservative and so on. But we are definitely preparing for the at least the next 12 months to be in a softer period. It could even be a bit longer.” Peter Wilson, CEO, Reece Group Ltd

“The economic indicators are always mixed. Definitely, you can see in our category that we think we’ve turned the corner, and the category is back to growth, which is a good indicator that people are spending more money on their homes.” Mark Coulter, CEO, Temple & Webster Ltd

Residential & Industrial Property

“However, what we do know is that the Australian property market is in good shape with strong levels of demand.” Owen Wilson, CEO, REA Group Ltd

"Supply constraints in our locations are expected to continue to drive rental growth and maintain high occupancy rates across the portfolio" Market Statement, Goodman Group Ltd

Agriculture

"Subject to normal trading conditions, the Group expects continued growth in the Branded segment and significantly improved performance in the Bulk segment as the disconnect between Australian farm gate milk prices and dairy commodity returns eases." Market Statement, Bega Cheese Ltd

"FY25 core poultry volume is expected to be a little lower than FY24…Core poultry net selling prices are expected to show modest growth, excluding the potential effect of any significant feed cost reductions. Based on current commodity pricing trends, Inghams expects some net benefit from potentially lower key feed costs in FY25." Market Statement, Inghams Group Ltd

Commodities

"As we know, recent years have been marked by a cyclically stronger macro environment, resulting in very strong results, which we've used to deliver shareholder returns and invest for sustainable earnings and growth. In contrast, right now, we're seeing almost the exact opposite of this, as we enter FY '25 with the convergence of near-term challenges." Mark Vassella, CEO, BlueScope Steel Ltd

"In the near term, we expect volatility in global commodity markets, with China experiencing an uneven recovery among its end-use sectors... India is set to continue as the world’s fastest growing major economy. We anticipate developed economies will face gradual relief from the lingering effects of higher interest rates in coming years." Mike Henry, CEO, BHP Group Ltd

“Despite the short-term effects of low market prices, we continue to see investment and policy initiatives that will support a growing global rare earths supply chain." Amanda Lacaze, CEO, Lynas Rate Earths Ltd

Fuel

“Since the end of June, the high levels of reliability in the global refinery system seen in the first half has continued, keeping markets well supplied during the northern hemisphere summer and contributing to lower product cracks.” Market Statement, Ampol Ltd

Telecommunications & Technology

“After almost 5 years of planning and working with customers, we are now in the last stages of transitioning from 3G to 4G and 5G networks, which are faster, more secure and more reliable.” Vicki Brady, CEO, Telstra Group Ltd

“As AI and cloud technologies increasingly drive global enterprise, the demand for speed, scalability, and reliability in digital infrastructure will continue to surge." Craig Scroggie, CEO, NEXTDC Ltd

Packaging

“Consumer demand continues to be muted. We would consider that to be low single digit down still. And also when we go into '25 with our expectations, we wouldn't assume that, that necessarily improves.” Peter Konieczny, CEO, Amcor Plc

Food & Beverage

“People continue to spend about the same amount of money, they’re just demanding value for money” Steve Donohue, CEO, Endeavour Group Ltd

“We remain focused on growing our customers’ shopping baskets but expect cost-of-living pressures to persist with cross shopping and trading down continuing." Brad Banducci, CEO, Woolworths Group Ltd

Universities & Education

"Assuming no further change in key immigration and visa policy settings, we expect that international student volumes [as measured by the total number of new international students commencing study in IDP’s six key destination markets], will decline by 20-25% in FY25 relative to the volumes experienced in FY24." Market Statement, IDP Education Ltd

Hotels & Travel

“Weekday business is performing well, weekend leisure business has softened relative to the post-COVID boom with considerable pressure on consumer spend, but still trading above pre-COVID RevPAR [revenue per available room]. Overall, our goal is to achieve another record Hotel result for FY25.” Jane Hastings, CEO, EVT Ltd

"In terms of market conditions, cost of living pressures have curbed discretionary spending but travel has generally out-performed other sectors – again underlining its resilience." Market Statement, Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd

Transport, Freight & Logistics

"So despite some concerns about the broader macro environment here, the automated industry in Australia has continued to be robust" Cameron McIntyre, CEO, Carsales Limited

“We expect the container logistics business to continue to grow at a similar rate in 2025, like it has in the past.” Paul Digney, CEO, Qube Holdings Ltd

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