NAOS CEO Insights

November 8, 2024

CEO INSIGHTS – Week Ending 8 November 2024

"Now that Trump has won the US Presidential election, the near-term risk of material tariff increases on consumer goods coming out of China has solidified"

Jim Clayton, CEO, Breville Group Ltd

Materials Handling & Logistics

“The Lift Truck industry is very resilient and has gone through similar cycles in the past. We plan to push through this latest downturn” Rajiv Prasad, CEO, Hyster-Yale Inc [global manufacturer of lift trucks & equipment]

Industrials

“I mean, we've seen a bit more softness in the general industrial area than we had indicated earlier.” Tarak Mehta, CEO, The Timken Co. [major global manufacturer of bearings & power transmission products]

Commercial Real Estate

“We expect significantly more fundraising in 2025 for a whole variety of reasons. One, we think the market is coming back, but secondly, we have a lot of new product in the marketplace.” Jay Hennick, CEO, Colliers International Inc

Banking

"Not unsurprisingly, asset quality deteriorated over FY24" Andrew Irvine, CEO, National Australia Bank Ltd

Asian Consumers

"Consumer sentiment in Mainland China weakened further in our first quarter, while we believe the new economic stimulus measures present medium to long-term potential for stabilisation, and then ultimately growth in prestige beauty, we anticipate still strong declines near term for the industry. Second, the prestige beauty industry in Asia continued to be significantly pressured as conversion levels are still far lower than pre-pandemic."  Fabrizio Freda, CEO, The Estée Lauder Co.

Trade Wars

"Now that Trump has won the US Presidential election, the near-term risk of material tariff increases on consumer goods coming out of China has solidified" Jim Clayton, CEO, Breville Group Ltd

Housing

"The Company continues to view Southeast Queensland and South Australia as the strongest markets in the near term. New South Wales continues to show signs of a recovery, while expectations are for a slower recovery in Victoria with only very early signs recently seen." Market Statement, AVJennings Ltd

“Currently, the conditions for the housing sector are favourable in the states we operate in, except Victoria. I expect Victoria to improve in 2025 given it has now developed an affordability advantage.” Nathan Blackburne, CEO, Cedar Woods Properties Ltd

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Carbon Credits & Emissions

“Recent scrutiny has cast doubt on the integrity and verification of carbon credits, and the benefits provided to local communities. This has placed additional pressure on organisations, including EY, as they navigate evolving carbon management standards and stakeholder expectations." Market Statement, EY Australia

“As sustainable aviation fuel use remains limited, and a majority of private aircraft owners do not plan to use it in the near future, it will be necessary to regulate the sector...There are similarities to commercial aviation, where demand and supply side management have become a focus of discussions, including reductions in air traffic.” Market Statement, Communications Earth & Environment [major scientific journal]

Speciality Chemicals & Regulation

“Additionally, we see a record amount of global chemical assets, especially in Europe, that are on the market. I would personally be surprised if all of these assets are sold. So I imagine that very few of these are actually making money. Given Europe's desire to rid itself of manufacturing, which I see reflected in its adherence to anti-growth energy and regulatory policies, I doubt the prospects will change anytime soon.” Peter Huntsman, CEO, Huntsman Corp [multinational speciality chemicals company]

Technology Adoption, AI & Language Models

“It is also just jarring to see how America adopts the most important, most agile and most impactful technology independent of who the purveyor and builder of that is.” Alexander Karp, CEO, Palantir Technologies Inc.

“You can make large language models do anything but do a science experiment. And in a weird way, even though the models are improving, they're meeting up against greater scepticism among clients because clients have tried them and [think] it's just a high school experiment.” Alexander Karp, CEO, Palantir Technologies Inc.

Advertising Markets

"The underlying Total TV market, however, remains challenging. At this stage, Q2 looks to be reverting to the rate of decline of FY24 (of around 10% down on previous corresponding period). While we remain more optimistic about the second half of FY25, we are seeing no tangible signs of improvement to date." Market Statement, Nine Entertainment Group Ltd

Plant-Based Meats

“More generally, you will increasingly hear Beyond Meat proudly share the process we use to make our delicious plant-based meats. The weaponisation of the word ‘process’, a tactic emphasized in the incumbent industry playbook on how to undermine plant-based meat and preserve the status quo has grown long in the tooth. It is past time we put it to bed.” Ethan Brown, CEO, Beyond Meat Inc

Languages

“English learners are a pretty major opportunity for us. The reason for that is because if you look at the broader language learning market outside of Duolingo, the majority of the spend, about 80% of it is from people who are learning English.” Luis von Ahn Arellano, CEO, Duolingo Inc

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