CEO INSIGHTS – Week Ending 15 September 2023

Engines

“So we don't see as much deferral of the actual oil change and in the 2008/2009 downturn, what we did see is some trade down…we've been looking for trade down on [automotive] services and I'm not sure we're seeing it” Lori Flees, President, Valvoline Inc

Medical & Health & Medical

“We find ourselves at a nexus of these changing consumer behaviours as consumers increasingly free themselves from long-standing fashion norms…This enduring trend also coincides with the shift towards healthy products as consumers seek alternatives to traditional work and other non-casual footwear options that do not promote or negatively impact foot health” Market Statement, Birkenstock Holding Ltd

“But if you think about the general population, we don't think people are going to need 2 [COVID] boosters a year. We think 1 booster a year will be good, a bit like a flu-like model” Stephane Bancel, CEO, Moderna Inc

Internet & Social Media

“The mental health crisis is a global phenomenon. Solving it is a global need and online platforms have a meaningful role to play....The people and companies that fund the internet are the ones who can fundamentally change it. This industry needs accountability” William Ready, CEO, Pinterest Inc

Equities & Cryptocurrency

“We fundamentally believe that at some point in time, fix rate [trading fees] will be commoditised. No different than many asset services have become commoditised. I mean, equities took 20years to get to the level of fees that we see today, no fees and be truly commoditised. So crypto will go on the same journey” Alesia Haas, CFO, Coinbase Global Inc

Retail

“Every time I speak with retailers, crime is getting worse. Thieves are becoming bolder, and more aggressive” Helen Dickinson, CEO, British Retail Consortium [trade association for UK retailers]

Homebuilding

“It doesn’t matter what number they [Federal Government’s 5yr new homes target] make it, whether it’s 1.2million or 5 million, it’s all the same. We won’t be getting there” Robert Lynch, Chairman, Tamawood Ltd

Commercial Property

“There are buyers out there and there’s a lot of people looking but no one wants to catch the falling knife. This valuation reset needs to take place and people need to be confident that is playing through” Darren Steinberg, CEO, Dexus Ltd‍

Consumers

“Consumers, I think, a year ago had the historic shock of inflation, started to pull back. But I think a year later, meaning now I think the arrow is pointing up. I think they've adjusted to the new normal” Michael Casey, CEO, Carters Inc [one of the world’s largest children’s clothing companies]

“We've been around for 45 years. So, before the pandemic, we had 40 years of trends. People pretty much consume the same way year-after-year. What we're seeing is reversion to the norm” Matthew Clark, CFO, The Cheesecake Factory Inc

Households

“And then last but certainly not least, pests continue to evolve. You continue to see new pests…So weather, population trends as well as the evolution around pests continue to be really prominent in the industry and providing a lot of secular growth opportunities for us” Kenneth Krause, CFO, Rollins Inc [one of the world’s largest pest control companies]

“The [furniture] category as a whole remains soft” Kate Gulliver, CFO, Wayfair Inc

Macroeconomic

“So I think overall, this is working out to be in this tightening phase, more benign than many had feared and it is coming towards what I'm hoping is a softer landing” C. S. Venkatakrishnan, CEO, Barclays Bank Plc

“We just don’t see that there will be a recession in Australia. It’s just quiet at the moment.”  Ross McEwan, CEO, National Australia Bank Ltd

Inflation

“I was concerned about the amount of inflation in categories like dry grocery and consumables, how that would impact discretionary purchases, had an eye on the consumer balance sheet, all those things that we were all thinking about at the beginning of the year, but things have held up better than I would have guessed” Doug McMillon, CEO, Walmart Inc

AI & Technology

“So, is generative AI the most important new computer technology ever? Maybe. We're about to find out. Self-driving cars, computer-designed antiviral drugs, voice user interfaces…Generative AI is changing everything” Larry Ellison, Co-Founder/CTO, Oracle Inc

Weather Events & Reinsurance

“Overall, it's still a tough environment for our insurance risk-bearing partners. They are grappling with stubbornly high loss cost inflation and more catastrophe losses” Patrick Gallagher, CEO, Arthur J Gallagher Co.

Manufacturing & Packaging

“Health care has been growing really rapidly, pharmaceutical and medical sales have been very strong for the last 12 to 18 months. Pet care space has been strong…we've had soft sales in protein as consumers have down traded and purchased less fresh meat as an example. We've seen softer sales in some of the other items that are more impulse purchases, confectionery and snacks” Ron Delia, CEO, Amcor Plc

Movies & Entertainment

“The industry is vibrant. Summer[Northern Hemisphere] box office exceeded $4 billion for the first time since2019” Market Statement, Vista Group Ltd